Effects of Futures On Bitcoin, 2017 CBOE vs 2021 The ProShares

It's December 10, 2017; Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets are in a frenzy. The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has announced that it has approved futures trading in Bitcoin. The first Bitcoin futures trading started on December 10 on the CBOE Futures Exchange. Then, the BEAR season began in Bitcoin, which will continue throughout 2018. Now history is repeating itself and the SEC approved a futures ETF on October 16, 2021. The BEAR 2022 season has begun in Bitcoin. In our article, we will examine the impact of futures transactions on Bitcoin and what awaits us in 2022 together.

News of CBOE Futures Hit The Markets

2017 was a great year for Bitcoin and we made it all-time-high with 20000 usd. News of CBOE futures hit the markets. Everyone thought this would be a great step forward for the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets. However, the expectations did not come true and futures turned into a nightmare for Bitcoin. With the start of futures transactions, Bitcoin and altcoins started to fall non-stop. December 10, 2018 was the date when the decline for Bitcoin ended and the prices bottomed out. Everyone forgets things very quickly.

And the date is October 16, 2021, the SEC has approved a Bitcoin Futures ETF. Everyone started to cry for joy again. But history was repeating itself. 3 weeks after the SEC approval, Bitcoin went all-time-high and the sharp declines have continued since then. Bitcoin has lost nearly 50% of its value from its peak.

With the start of futures transactions, those who do not hold Bitcoin in their wallets have the right to have a say over the Bitcoin price. While the Spot ETF can have a very positive effect by collecting Bitcoin from the market, Futures transactions have no effect on supply and demand as they do not directly buy or sell from the market. However, it seems very clear that spot markets do not like futures transactions.

200 - Weeks Moving Averages At The End of 2018

The decline, which started with the arrival of futures transactions in 2017, took us up to the 200-week moving average at the end of 2018. Again in March 2020, the 200-week moving average was a very strong support in the collapse caused by the pandemic.

If we look at the downward trend that we started with the 2021 futures ETF, we also predict it to end at the 200-week moving average level. However, market dynamics continue to change very differently every year. The prediction we give here does not necessarily have to come true. There are quite large companies in the market. We may encounter a different reaction.

New All Time Highs

When we examine the year 2018 in detail, the price of Bitcoin has been consolidating for a while after 50-60 percent depreciation. Then it experienced a second wave of sharp declines. Another challenging news for Bitcoin in 2022 is the Fed policy rate indicator. At the same time, the fact that the FED will do QE will be another compelling news for Bitcoin. In the light of all these details, 2022 shows that it will be a tough year for Bitcoin.

However, futures trading that started in 2017 could not stop Bitcoin and we finally reached new heights. Bitcoin made a premium of 300 - 350 percent from its peak at that time. New heights will surely come for Bitcoin in the coming years.

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